Political Gum Hockey

Political Commentary and Humor

New Hampshire Primary Shocker!

Romney wins!

Oh, that’s not a shock? My bad.

So even though they are still counting the votes as I write this, Romney has been projected the winner of the New Hampshire Republican party primary, just a couple of light clicks after winning in Iowa (if you can call an 8 vote – not 8%, 8 vote – margin a win).  Did someone say inevitable? Did someone say this months ago? Maybe a year ago?

Oh wait, there is a New Hampshire shocker to report – yep, Ron Paul will come in second!  Yes, that Ron Paul.

The reason for Paul’s surge in New Hampshire (and Iowa) are obviously due to his insightful and visionary ideas for the future greatness of America.  Oops, check that.  Mistook him for someone else.  No, Paul did well in Iowa and even better in New Hampshire because all the rest of the tea party nuts had already had their day on the artificial pedestal the tea party created for them.  Palin, Trump, Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and Santorum all got their jet pack in the, umm, on their back and flew into the heavens…only to get the vapors and collapse back to Earth as soon as they spoke when people might actually be listening.  So that left Paul.  Who has been there all the time saying the same thing over and over (though not always taking the credit/blame for what he’s said in the past).  Ron Paul was ignored then, and when this “last man not stuck up on a pole to be eaten alive by the crows” falls back to Earth he’ll go back to being ignored again.  Of course, he will immediately be reincarnated as Rand Paul.  Wonderful.

Which leaves Jon Huntsman.  Huntsman made a name for himself this weekend and not only raised his standing to a third place finish in New Hampshire but put himself into the position of “the next white guy in line” for 2016.  Watch this space for more on Jon Huntsman after Romney officially wins the Republican nomination for 2012.  Of course, the 2016 countdown clock for Huntsman can’t start until after the November 2012 election, you know, just in case.

So we’re on to South Carolina, where Romney has the support of SC Governor Nikki Haley.  Then there is Florida, though by that time Perry and Santorum and maybe even Gingrich could have dropped out of the race and it will be an anointing rather than a primary.  Which should make the other 46 states wonder why they are going through the expense of holding primaries in the first place.

Then the fun begins – the tea party gets to show us all whether they actually have the principles they keep telling us…cough…that they have, or will the tea party vote for the guy they have been actively despising and calling all sorts of mean and nasty names?  And those are the Republicans doing this.

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January 10, 2012 - Posted by | Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Republican, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Tea Party | , , , , , , , , , ,

7 Comments »

  1. How does Huntsman’s lousy performance make him the next guy in line? It seems Ron Paul has a much better claim to that position, which he will pass onto his son.

    I would also note Paul has not seen the surge and collapse of other candidates; like Romney, his poll numbers are stable and moving up slowly, mostly due to the campaign’s hard work and doing all the boring stuff (like qualifying for the Virginia ballot).

    “Oops, check that. Mistook him for someone else.”

    You got it right the first time 😉

    Comment by k466 | January 10, 2012 | Reply

    • Re: “Huntsman’s lousy performance…” Actually, Huntsman did much better than he was expected to do, largely based on his maturity and “country first” attitude shown this weekend, which is a huge contrast with Romney’s “me first” persona. The fact that he got recognized for his integrity and service to the country will be remembered in 2016. He might even get a bump in SC.

      Re: “Paul has not seen the surge and collapse…” True, his rise has been more gradual, mainly because he is just floating to the top as the others pile up underneath him. His campaign certainly has worked hard. Do you think his numbers have hit their ceiling or is there room for growth in states like South Carolina and Florida?

      Comment by politicalgumhockey | January 10, 2012 | Reply

      • Huntsman did do better than the polls anticipated (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html), but so did Paul and Romney. The polls for SC and FL have him in low single digits. This isn’t much to build on for 2016.

        I expect Paul will see a bump in support as he did after Iowa, but he is going to have a harder time in SC/FL. It all depends on what happens to polling, fundraising, and the other candidates in reaction to NH. We should know within the next week.

        Comment by k466 | January 11, 2012 | Reply

        • Actually, Romney did worse than the polls suggested he should do. But he still won by far and will get the nomination. Paul did better than previous polling, but that isn’t really all that important. As I noted, people voted for Paul because Gingrich and Perry flamed out and because Santorum is way too extreme. And as you say, Paul should get a bump in SC, but not enough to win. After that it’s a moot point and he won’t run again in 2016 – he’ll hand off the baton to Rand and see what he can do. Rand’s problem is a topic for a post when he becomes relevant.

          The point with Huntsman is that he is actually electable. Assuming Obama wins reelection, electability will be the key. [If Romney wins the 2012 election then there won’t be a serious challenger in the Republican primaries] Part of Huntsman’s problem in this cycle is that no one knows who he is and the tea party doesn’t even want to talk about anyone who is actually capable of doing the job of President. Huntsman speaking in Mandarin also didn’t help his case this year, but in 2016 the ability to communicate directly with the Chinese is going to be a huge asset.

          So next time around Huntsman will be a known quantity, especially if he does what Romney did and essentially run for the next 4 years. With a retiring incumbent in 2016 he will have a clear shot at being the adult in the room.

          Comment by politicalgumhockey | January 11, 2012 | Reply

          • I can understand why people would say Ron Paul is not electable; but his son certainly is. Huntsman may also be electable to the party leadership, the media, independents and democrats, but most of the republican base isn’t going to go for him. Things could change in the next four years but he really has an uphill battle, much more than Romney did after 2008.

            Comment by k466 | January 11, 2012

  2. Rand is also not electable. He has all of his father’s faults without the age. Huntsman is electable because he doesn’t appeal to the tea party base. Remember that the tea party base supports people who couldn’t possibly get elected to be President. So anyone the tea party base supports would be rejected by responsible Americans.

    Comment by politicalgumhockey | January 11, 2012 | Reply

    • We may have to agree to partially disagree for now. I’m biased in favor of the Paul’s and you seem to be towards Huntsman.

      btw, if the tea party started supporting Huntsman, Obama, or anyone else that should not matter to “responsible Americans”. They should be basing their decision on the individual candidate rather than who some of their supporters are.

      Comment by k466 | January 11, 2012 | Reply


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